Very few: Property / Residential / Rent / Southland
Ie Southland, that gives a total at the moment of the query. It is also a safe count, avoiding pitfalls of input errors, but undercounts large apartment releases unfortunately. These are usually rare, because units are often sold to investors who all advertise separately.
I started the series in 2009, so have been reluctant to change to ensure continuity and cannot see a way to catch multiple apartments.
Continuity got messed up when Trademe removed the ability for some PMs to list in different suburbs for free, but that changed in 2014-2016 and they had to pay for every ad. Some regions reacted quickly, others took a while.
I think I understand you want to know if there is a net change in empty homes. I believe from my sources that these are not investors, just owners, who for multiple reasons have moved house, moved to a retirement village, migrated towns or countries but have not been able to sell their house at a price they want. They have asked rental agencies to rent them out. So they went from an occupied home to an empty property for sale, to an empty property for rent.
It will be interesting to see if the increase in inventory can be absorbed with impacting the market. My experience with this data since 2008, is that it is not remotely possible. Rents have been stagnant in Wellington for three years due to oversupply. This change will reduce rents if supply continues to grow at this rate
BTW That’s 50% growth in rental inventory in 3 months. A crazy record.
if I understand what you mean by “before” it is usually rare, people tend to want to leave their home behind but I have zero data on it. Some investors may well be doing that but in that case those additions would have been losses earlier. It was common in post 2003 I think and then 2008.
I had feedback with 3 points from a large pm company.
1 strong demand from new immigrants has decreased -> I’ll do a study like I’ve done before and see if there are big changes in skill sets, often a rental market driver.
2. Combined with the number of new Landlords who are deciding not to sell and become LL by default as they move cities/countries has added to the number of properties we manage quite drastically. -> These are often called accidental landlords
3. we have seen the heat go out of the market over the last few months -> exactly what my data is saying
My work is focussed on interpreting quality data from great sources and publishing it in useful ways. I avoid too much speculation but sometimes a little bit of explanation helps subscribers see the wood for the trees.
The housing/rental market can be a complicated beast, cause and effect of many things can take a long time to actually flow through. Great information John, as this mirrors also from what we have been seeing
My wife is an estate agent and have had one vendor just do this and another looks like won't even list now and will rent out due to unhappy with a realistic appraisal of current market value. The higher interest rates coming off fixed and only 50 % deductibility for financial year being will also be a squeeze I suspect along with ever increasing rates, insurance, general compliance costs & repairs.
Hi John, what property category filters do you apply on Trade Me?
Very few: Property / Residential / Rent / Southland
Ie Southland, that gives a total at the moment of the query. It is also a safe count, avoiding pitfalls of input errors, but undercounts large apartment releases unfortunately. These are usually rare, because units are often sold to investors who all advertise separately.
I started the series in 2009, so have been reluctant to change to ensure continuity and cannot see a way to catch multiple apartments.
Continuity got messed up when Trademe removed the ability for some PMs to list in different suburbs for free, but that changed in 2014-2016 and they had to pay for every ad. Some regions reacted quickly, others took a while.
Thanks. Great stuff!
I’m curious John. Were these homes being taken off the market for sale and put on to rent empty before?
I think I understand you want to know if there is a net change in empty homes. I believe from my sources that these are not investors, just owners, who for multiple reasons have moved house, moved to a retirement village, migrated towns or countries but have not been able to sell their house at a price they want. They have asked rental agencies to rent them out. So they went from an occupied home to an empty property for sale, to an empty property for rent.
It will be interesting to see if the increase in inventory can be absorbed with impacting the market. My experience with this data since 2008, is that it is not remotely possible. Rents have been stagnant in Wellington for three years due to oversupply. This change will reduce rents if supply continues to grow at this rate
BTW That’s 50% growth in rental inventory in 3 months. A crazy record.
if I understand what you mean by “before” it is usually rare, people tend to want to leave their home behind but I have zero data on it. Some investors may well be doing that but in that case those additions would have been losses earlier. It was common in post 2003 I think and then 2008.
I had feedback with 3 points from a large pm company.
1 strong demand from new immigrants has decreased -> I’ll do a study like I’ve done before and see if there are big changes in skill sets, often a rental market driver.
2. Combined with the number of new Landlords who are deciding not to sell and become LL by default as they move cities/countries has added to the number of properties we manage quite drastically. -> These are often called accidental landlords
3. we have seen the heat go out of the market over the last few months -> exactly what my data is saying
My work is focussed on interpreting quality data from great sources and publishing it in useful ways. I avoid too much speculation but sometimes a little bit of explanation helps subscribers see the wood for the trees.
The housing/rental market can be a complicated beast, cause and effect of many things can take a long time to actually flow through. Great information John, as this mirrors also from what we have been seeing
Thanks Brent. Now I just want more detail than your comment LOL.
How are you seeing it? I’m guessing you could be a PM, where? This sort of feedback can be incredibly valuable to understand changes like this.
My wife is an estate agent and have had one vendor just do this and another looks like won't even list now and will rent out due to unhappy with a realistic appraisal of current market value. The higher interest rates coming off fixed and only 50 % deductibility for financial year being will also be a squeeze I suspect along with ever increasing rates, insurance, general compliance costs & repairs.