Clearly the 2021 house prices in Wellington were an abberation and the 2022 decline seems like an overreaction in hindsight yet the subsequent recovery in price is not proof that the bubble is over.
Whether we are talking NZ residential property or U.S. equities it seems like ever lower interest rates and debt rising with asset prices along with moral hazard from government bailouts of mistakes and fraud have conditioned market participants to buy the dip.
It may be that the bubble is over and the recovery is in place but there is also the risk that we haven't yet seen the real forced deleverging, panic selling and capitulation in asset prices that tends to mark the tail end of a bubble. I don't think the likes of Williams Corporation have a sustainable business model or that the banks and RBNZ have been transparent about the real risks on their books.
In an environment of persistent inflation our interest rates need to be high enough for the treasury to sell government bonds, I don't think residential property speculators are front of mind in this scenario.
I try to interpret what I see, your interpretation is perfectly valid, but I do hope it is from the data I present.
The reason I publish this information is because it is hidden from view by organisations promoting their cause, I do not have a cause.
The data is what it is, it may be an aberration but it is it is actually what is happening in the market which is the most important piece of many investors puzzles. I just try to interpret as well as I can to assist people to understand data, I quote the data I unearth from reliable sources.
Thanks John, there's your facts and data which we can agree on then there's guesses as to the future. I don't think you have a cause but that we all have biases and perspectives and it's through many perspectives that markets are most efficient.
Thanks for sharing your data it'll be of interest to see how things shake out from here.
Clearly the 2021 house prices in Wellington were an abberation and the 2022 decline seems like an overreaction in hindsight yet the subsequent recovery in price is not proof that the bubble is over.
Whether we are talking NZ residential property or U.S. equities it seems like ever lower interest rates and debt rising with asset prices along with moral hazard from government bailouts of mistakes and fraud have conditioned market participants to buy the dip.
It may be that the bubble is over and the recovery is in place but there is also the risk that we haven't yet seen the real forced deleverging, panic selling and capitulation in asset prices that tends to mark the tail end of a bubble. I don't think the likes of Williams Corporation have a sustainable business model or that the banks and RBNZ have been transparent about the real risks on their books.
In an environment of persistent inflation our interest rates need to be high enough for the treasury to sell government bonds, I don't think residential property speculators are front of mind in this scenario.
Thank you for your comments.
I try to interpret what I see, your interpretation is perfectly valid, but I do hope it is from the data I present.
The reason I publish this information is because it is hidden from view by organisations promoting their cause, I do not have a cause.
The data is what it is, it may be an aberration but it is it is actually what is happening in the market which is the most important piece of many investors puzzles. I just try to interpret as well as I can to assist people to understand data, I quote the data I unearth from reliable sources.
Thanks John, there's your facts and data which we can agree on then there's guesses as to the future. I don't think you have a cause but that we all have biases and perspectives and it's through many perspectives that markets are most efficient.
Thanks for sharing your data it'll be of interest to see how things shake out from here.
Well put. I agree, it’s really easy to get your own bias impact comments. I try hard not to but may not always succeed