The May Housing Market

Check the menu items at the top of my homepage for valuable information

Checking the tabs at the top of the start page of my blog often is worth the effort. I update data as it comes available so the charts shown within each menu item are simply kept up to date based on the frequency of data published, usually weekly or monthly. I rarely update the comments, I post a new blog to highlight anything interesting to me.

1. Rental Inventory

2. Rental Prices

3. Sales Inventory

4. Sales Prices

Rental Inventory

I published an article 28th May that suggested that the growth in rental inventory was 50% in 3 months, we have only had 3 more weeks and inventory has continued to grow in almost a straight line, led of course by Auckland;

However, check out the regions you are interested in, growth is also very strong in BoP, Wellington and Canterbury.

Rental Prices

I delve into Wellington a bit deeper further down the inventory page and it’s clear that oversupply is restricted to the CBD, which may explain another chart from prices by region. Wellington has had little change in rental prices for 3 years in the first half of the year, yet the April data has a sudden increase over April 2022 and April 2023;

Every other region has had regular increases in rent, but Wellington has lagged since 2022, yet suddenly increased in April 2024. Is this due to prices rising in the outer suburbs? Or due to incomes rising enabling tenants to choose higher priced homes? Or just a random change like in December for the last 3 years? Or incomes may be rising as public servants move from employment to contracting? We will have to wait a couple of months for income stats to be published and/or a trend develops.

Sales Inventory

I only collect sales inventory for Wellington so cannot compare other regions, but Wellington is showing consistently high inventory, especially in the inner city, although the peak appears to have passed it remains at the highest seasonal level since 2017;

Sales Prices

Then of course we have sales prices, the market is treading water in the north, Auckland, Waikato and BoP, but the south appears to be growing from the recovery after the bubble;

The combination of Wellington oversupply yet rising prices does not fit an expected supply demand response so there may be other factors here - maybe incomes. I don’t know yet.

I cannot predict where we are going with house prices, but the media love focussing on the negative and this year is clearly showing no growth since January which is the primary focus of those wanting clicks. This year is only 4 months long so it ignores the changes since the bubble popped. This year is way too short to see a trend so I focus on an identifiable point, the end of the bubble. Prices are flat for Hamilton (2% up) but for Auckland City and BoP they only flattened in late 2023 at 4% higher than the bottom of the market.

Southern regions are almost following the household income line so are up 6% since July last year, a significant rise YoY if prices in these regions continue to follow their trend.

This post should remind you that the menu at the top of the page links to a lot of valuable information from data I collect. It is worth checking if you are reviewing your portfolio.